2019-12-16 - Comment

Przemysław Biskup

Decisive Victory for the Conservatives in the 2019 UK General Election

The Conservative Party won the 2019 general election with their strongest mandate to govern since Margaret Thatcher’s success in the 1980s and backed by the largest parliamentary majority since Tony Blair in 2001. The results should provide enough votes for the swift ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement and the opening of talks on the EU-UK future relationship in February. The Tories’ success was possible due to the fierce competition between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. The results also increase the likelihood of independence and unification referendums in Scotland and Northern Ireland, respectively. 

2019-12-13 - Bulletin

Paweł Markiewicz

Challenges for Trudeau's Second Government

Following the federal elections of 21 October 2019, Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) remains a prominent player in parliament. However, it lost its majority and will rule in a minority government. Concerning domestic issues, growing regional differences will demand the government’s attention. The challenge in foreign affairs will be repairing relations with China and avoiding further trade escalations with the U.S. Amid the Chinese-American rivalry, Canada may look for closer relations with the EU. 

2019-12-13 - Comment

Michał Wojnarowicz

Political Deadlock in Israel

An attempt to build a coalition majority after the second elections this year in Israel have failed. Without concessions from the leaders of the major political forces, the next election, scheduled for 2 March 2020, may not resolve the unprecedented stalemate. 

2019-12-12 - Bulletin

Jakub Pieńkowski

Bulgarian-Russian Relations: Between Sentiment and Pragmatism

A series of spying scandals at the end of 2019 only seems to be worsening Bulgaria’s relations with Russia. That’s because cultural and historical ties evoke in Bulgarian society special sympathy for Russia and the authorities see nothing in the threats arising from the Russians’ aggressive policy. They consider the country a key partner in Bulgaria’s energy sector. Bulgarian-Russian cooperation may deepen the divisions in the European Union’s policy toward Russia. 

2019-12-11 - Bulletin

Lidia Gibadło

Germany's Policy Regarding Western Balkans' EU Accession

President Emmanuel Macron’s opposition to the start of accession talks between the EU and Albania and Northern Macedonia may lead Germany to revise its current policy towards the Western Balkans. Germany will try to influence France’s position but, at the same time, it may decide to develop bilateral relations with the countries of the region and existing forms of cooperation in which Poland may be a partner.