2019-08-08 - Comment

Marek Wąsiński, Damian Wnukowski

Latest Yuan Depreciation Escalates U.S.-China Dispute

The U.S. and China are escalating their trade conflict despite negotiations to resolve it. In response to new tariffs to be imposed by the U.S., the Chinese authorities allowed their currency to depreciate below the symbolic value of 7 yuan per dollar on 5 August, which led to plunges in major global stock exchanges, among other effects. The protracted and escalating dispute, now expanded to currency issues, will negatively impact the global economy, including the EU’s.

 

2019-08-07 - Bulletin

Jakub Pieńkowski

Romania's Political Scene at the Start of the Presidential Campaign

In July, the main Romanian political parties nominated candidates for the November presidential election but the leaders of the ruling coalition have not agreed on a common candidate. The Social Democratic Party (PSD) nominated Prime Minister Viorica Dăncilă, the successor of convicted chairman Liviu Dragnea, but the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats (ALDE) chose Speaker of the Senate Călin Popescu-Tăriceanu. This reduces the ruling coalition’s chance of defeating President Klaus Iohannis. His re-election would likely result in the continuation of Romania’s foreign policy, with the alliance with Poland an important element of it.

2019-08-06 - Bulletin

Agnieszka Legucka

Countering Russian Disinformation in the European Union

Russia runs disinformation campaigns against the EU using traditional media and the internet, including social media. Yet, the effectiveness of the fight against Russian disinformation by the Union and its Member States has so far been limited. These activities require strengthening at the international and national levels, as well as increasing public awareness of the use of media.

 

2019-08-05 - Comment

Artur Kacprzyk

The End of the INF Treaty

On 2 August, the U.S. withdrew from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, citing years-long Russian violation of the accord. The Trump administration wants to develop and produce ground-launched cruise and ballistic missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometres, which were banned under the treaty. It will seek to deploy conventionally-armed missiles of this type in Asia and possibly in Europe as well. That will depend, however, on the internal political dynamics in the U.S. and consultations with allies.

2019-08-02 - Bulletin

Andrzej Dąbrowski

Japan's Foreign Policy in the Context of the Rivalry Between the U.S. and China

Victory for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito coalition in the complementary elections to the upper house of the Japanese parliament will not bring about a significant change in Japan’s foreign policy. Neither will it allow constitutional reform, postulated by prime minister Shinz? Abe, for which he lacks the required majority. Amending the constitution would create new opportunities for military cooperation between the U.S. and Japan, but would have a negative effect on Japanese relations with China. Nevertheless, it is to be expected that Japan will be more active in its economic and security policies towards China and the United States, while the rivalry between these countries will become a greater challenge for the Japanese government.